Q2’14 Earnings Season: What’s Your Prediction?

By Kira Lenke

It’s the middle of the Q2 2014 earnings season. In this week alone, we’ll see 163 companies report earnings. Next week 91 and the week after 100. Despite early positive results reported by industry leaders like FedEx (FDX) and Oracle (ORCL), analysts don’t seem to be very bullish on Q2 earnings and revenue forecasts.

If you followed what happened in Q1 2014, this statistic explains it all.

According to a Deutsche Bank Q1 earnings tracker, “while two thirds may have beat earnings, a stunning 51%, or a majority of the reporting companies have missed Q1 revenue estimates.” Based on our own calculations from data pulled from Zacks, this equates to more than $50B in market capitalization losses due to revenue surprises.

It’s already been a rough earning season. From Yahoo’s (YHOO) revenue forecast miss due to slower than expected display ad revenue to sales underperformance by General Mills (GIS), the impact of revenue misses leaves CXOs, market watchers, and journalists pondering.

We all know that revenue misses create enormous stress for businesses. Investors and partners become skeptical, companies are forced to downgrade, there’s a real potential for turnover and job loss. After a revenue miss, managers and CXOs have to put in measures and new strategies so it won’t happen again.

So the burning questions are: How can can we prevent this? How can we get better at forecasting? How can we get better at prediction?

These are the problems that we’re aiming to solve at Aviso.

With our new approach, Total Revenue Intelligence, we give CXOs an unbiased, data science view of sales and revenue data to predict and optimize revenue outcomes, and further, act on their data far beyond what is possible with traditional BI reports, visualizations and Excel models. By combining mathematics, machine learning, and frameworks from Wall Street portfolio management into our cloud application, CXOs get a fresh perspective to look at revenue for not only this quarter, but the next quarters; to drill into their revenue streams not just at a top level, but at the most discrete levels such as product, region, team, partner or even sales rep; and to know where the most risk is in the revenue forecast to allocate resources and capital accordingly.

Perhaps someday, every enterprise will use the “Aviso Number” to provide revenue guidance with confidence. But in the meantime, we just have to get used to the roller coaster of earning announcements.

To learn more about Total Revenue Intelligence, join us on our webinar next Thursday, July 24th at 10am PT with Robert Gersten, the former Chief Development Officer of Oracle Hyperion Software. REGISTER HERE.

See how Aviso can help you.